Russian natural gas and its influence in Europe.

While there has more recently been a price war between Opec (more specifically, Saudi Arabia) and Russia, it has recently been diffused. The tension involved in Russia’s dealings with the European Union particularly regarding Nord Stream is at a similar level, although it is somewhat different in nature.

However, the main motivation for Russian President Vladimir Putin, that of rebuilding and expanding the Russian empire with himself as a latter-day Tsar, is identical. While the nations of Europe are not confronting Russia in the direct manner in which the Kingdom did, there are still a number factors which have caused concern, which has recently increased.

Russia energy pre-history precedes the Soviet Union. With resources in both the Asian and European regions of the Russian nation, Nord Stream would play a role in restoring the former empire in which Putin had been a Soviet counter-intelligence officer. In the late 1980s and 1990s, the USSR’s eastern European client states were busy distancing themselves from the Kremlin. The USSR itself was busy dissolving to such an extent that gas supplies were cut off to the 3 Baltic States as a measure of last resort to hold the Union together.

This was roughly 18 months after Putin in his former position as a KGB major had left his office in Dresden (East Germany) while the Soviet empire was collapsing. The KGB headquarters were at risk of being raided by angry civilians in its entirety. As had been tried and failed with the Baltic States and perceived as having been previously wasted, energy has been used as geopolitical tool since Putin became prime minister, then president a decade after he had left Dresden.

While Russia’s European production is within its far southwest, there is significant production in Siberia. Much or most of Mainland Europe’s energy is imported from Russia. Energy is the backbone on which much of Russia’s influence over Europe is built. While the initial aim may have been to restore the previous empire to the former Warsaw Pact, energy is now the main method for extending it even further west. Trojan Horse is a metaphor which is frequently used to describe many of the Russian president’s policies, especially those involving energy.  

Much of the build up to the current situation also occurred in Germany involving much of the pre-high office career of current German Chancellor, Angela Merkel. While she had been born in Hamburg in West Germany, the family moved to Perleberg in East Germany which is almost exactly halfway between Hamburg and Berlin. After the 1989 revolution, while Major and future President Putin were under extreme pressure, she was deputy spokesperson for the first democratically elected East German government led by Lothar de Maizière.

After reunification, she had many positions in Helmut Kohl’s government. She has been Chancellor since 2005. In 2018, she announced that she would not seek re-election as the leader of her party, the CDU. Therefore, after the next general election in 2021, she will not be in any political office at all. Ever since she became German Chancellor, she has frequently been described as the unofficial leader of Europe.

As Germany has long been the dominant economy of the European Union, supplying most of its natural gas is the best means for Russia to strengthen its empire.

Major Russian gas pipelines to Europe by Samuel Baily.

US sanctions were implemented to prevent or slow down completion of Nord Stream 2. Chancellor Merkel criticized proposed sanctions, having also expressed concerns about relying on Russian energy excessively a decade earlier. General opinion both domestically and politically has steadily made her favour Nord Stream 2.

While opposition has been occasional from German Chancellor Angela Merkel, it has been more consistent from other European nations. The use of gas supply has long been perceived by many to bypass transit countries or gain political influence. Furthermore, Russia refused to ratify the Energy Charter Treaty. The headquarters of the drafting organization are in Brussels, the same location as the EU parliament. Without a legal framework to protect the customers, Russia would have something that resembles absolute authority as the sole supplier. That is also enabled by the fact that Nord Stream 2 circumvents previous transit countries. 

A number of concerns have been raised due to this in combination with pressure brought about by Russian state-owned company Gazprom, to the extent that European Commission officials stating that “Nord Stream 2 does not enhance EU energy security." 

Furthermore, individual nations have criticized Nord Stream 2 and Russian energy projects in general. Some of the critics are not members of the EU or the former Russian empire, while some of them are. This includes the USA, Poland, Ukraine, the UK, Italy, Hungry, and the EU itself.

Such criticism and also the sanctions have been strongly rejected by Germany and Austria, implying that the US is interfering in European affairs and worsening relations. How can Germany continue with such a stance, especially given the recent poisoning of Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny? After one month in intensive care, he was recently discharged from Charité Hospital in central Berlin which is walking distance from the German parliament. While it may not have changed her opinion, the German Chancellor is now hesitating in terms of the pipeline, “I have not yet formed a final judgement on this."

If the chancellor and citizen of the former East Germany decides against blocking the pipeline’s completion and extension, she has a few options to thwart the former KGB Major’s attempts at rebuilding the Russian empire through supply of natural gas to the EU market.  Many of the choices involve legal action which would require EU-wide action, rather than Germany all by itself. There already seems to be widespread consensus throughout Europe against Nord Stream 2. Therefore, if Chancellor Merkel’s final judgement is against Nord Stream 2, there are many options such as revoking permits already in place. That could be challenging, as many permits were issued by provinces that are very firmly in favour of Nord Stream 2.

Furthermore, environmental NGOs have recently gone to court to have operating permits reviewed on climate grounds. So far, it is unclear whether or not any review will take place. There are also legal grounds to restrict Russian gas imports due to the poisoning of Alexei Navalny. Germany’s Foreign Trade and Payments Act could be used against Nord Stream 2, and also the first Nord Stream which is already operating. 

The US sanctions in place could be allowed to have full effect as long as Germany stops objecting on the grounds that it is excessive interference in German and EU sovereignty. Doing so would depend on political will, as many of the sanctions target the EU companies doing business with Nord Stream 2. There are more than 100 of them. More often than not, public opinion influences political will.

If US sanctions were strengthened by EU sanctions, that could mean that Nord Stream 2 would be cancelled completely. In addition, the rest of the Russian pipeline network into Europe would become uneconomic. Under EU law and its constitution, the vote to implement sanctions would have to be unanimous. Therefore, it does not matter that Germany is the dominant economy among EU member states.  

Therefore, prevention of Russia gaining a large measure of influence throughout Europe would only be fully achievable if the European Union takes coordinated together, including Germany in particular.